Effects of demographic growth on economic growth in Mozambique (2011-2020)
Keywords:
demographic growth, economic growth, ordinal least squaresAbstract
This study analyses the effects of demographic growth on economic growth in Mozambique from 2011 to 2020. The ordinal least squares method was used to estimate the results, in order to understand the relationship between GDP and demographic variables such as population growth rate, mortality rate, fertility rate, rural population, consumer price index (CPI) and unemployment rate. The results show that population growth has a positive effect on economic growth in Mozambique, the constant explains that keeping all independent variables fixed, GDP will fall by -22.58929%, but a negative correlation was found between GDP and CPI, the model has a high degree of fit such that R2= 0.9862 indicating that the independent variables have an impact on the dependent variable.
Downloads
References
Arnaldo, C., & Hansine, R. (2015). Dividendo demográfico em Moçambique: Oportunidades e desafios. In L. de Brito, C. N. Castel-Branco, S. Chichava, S. Forquilha, & A. Francisco (Eds.), Desafios para Moçambique 2015 (pp. 399–416). Instituto de Estudos Sociais e Económicos.
Bloom, D., Canning, D. e Sevilla, J. (2002). The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, MR-1274.
Condorcet, M. J. A. N. de C. (1993). Esboço de um quadro histórico dos progressos do espírito humano. Brasília: Editora da Universidade de Brasília.
Instituto Nacional de Estatística. (2017). Indicadores Estatísticos de Moçambique 2017. INE.
Jones, Charles I; Vollarth, Dietrich (2015). Introdução à Teoria do Crescimento Econômico. 3ª edição. Rio de Janeiro: Elsevier.
Krueger, A. e Lindahl, M. (2001). Education for Growth: Why and For Whom? Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(4), p. 1101-1136.
Kuznets, Simon (1986). Crescimento econômico moderno: ritmo, estrutura e difusão, Abril Cultural, São Paulo, Brasil.
Lee, R. (2003). The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 17(4), p.167-190.
Malthus, Thomas (1798). An Essay on the Principle of Population: An Essay on the Principle of Population, as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society with Remarks on the Speculations of Mr. Godwin, M. Condorcet, and Other Writers. Printed for J. Johnson, in St. Paul’s Church-Yard.
Nazareno, Maria, (2018). O impacto populacional sobre o crescimento económico dos BRICS.
Notestein, F. W. (1945). Population: The long view. In T. W. Schultz (Ed.), Food for the World (pp. 36-57). University of Chicago Press.
Okun, A. (1962). "Potential GDP: Its Meusurement and Significance". Reprinted as Cowles Foundation Paper 190.
Romer, Paul M. “The Origins of Endogenous Growth”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 8, nº1 (winter, 1994) pp. 3-22.
Solow, Robert M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 70, No. 1, pp. 65-94.

